Index: The Book of Statistical ProofsStatistical Models ▷ Univariate normal data ▷ Bayesian linear regression ▷ Log Bayes factor for comparison of two regression models

Theorem: Let $y = \left[ y_1, \ldots, y_n \right]^\mathrm{T}$ be an $n \times 1$ vector of a measured univariate signal and consider two linear regression models with design matrices $X_1, X_2$ and precision matrices $P_1, P_2$, entailing potentially different regression coefficients $\beta_1, \beta_2$ and noise precisions $\tau_1, \tau_2$:

$\label{eq:GLM-NG-12} \begin{split} m_1: \; y &= X_1 \beta_1 + \varepsilon_1, \; \varepsilon_1 \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_1^2 V_1), \; \sigma_1^2 V_1 = (\tau_1 P_1)^{-1} \\ m_2: \; y &= X_2 \beta_2 + \varepsilon_2, \; \varepsilon_2 \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_2^2 V_2), \; \sigma_2^2 V_2 = (\tau_2 P_2)^{-1} \; . \end{split}$

Moreover, assume normal-gamma prior distributions over the model parameters $\beta_1$ and $\tau_1 = 1/\sigma_1^2$ as well as $\beta_2$ and $\tau_2 = 1/\sigma_2^2$:

$\label{eq:GLM-NG-prior-12} \begin{split} p(\beta_1,\tau_1) &= \mathcal{N}\left( \beta_1; \mu_0^{(1)}, \left( \tau_1 \Lambda_0^{(1)} \right)^{-1} \right) \cdot \mathrm{Gam}\left( \tau_1; a_0^{(1)}, b_0^{(1)} \right) \\ p(\beta_2,\tau_2) &= \mathcal{N}\left( \beta_2; \mu_0^{(2)}, \left( \tau_2 \Lambda_0^{(2)} \right)^{-1} \right) \cdot \mathrm{Gam}\left( \tau_2; a_0^{(2)}, b_0^{(2)} \right) \; . \end{split}$

Then, the log Bayes factor in favor of $m_1$ against $m_2$ is

$\label{eq:GLN-NG-LBF-12} \begin{split} \mathrm{LBF}_{12} &= \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|P_1|}{|P_2|} + \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|\Lambda_0^{(1)}|}{|\Lambda_0^{(2)}|} - \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|\Lambda_n^{(1)}|}{|\Lambda_n^{(2)}|} \\ &+ \log \frac{\Gamma\left( a_n^{(1)} \right)}{\Gamma\left( a_0^{(1)} \right)} + a_0^{(1)} \log b_0^{(1)} - a_n^{(1)} \log b_n^{(1)} \\ &+ \log \frac{\Gamma\left( a_n^{(2)} \right)}{\Gamma\left( a_0^{(2)} \right)} - a_0^{(2)} \log b_0^{(2)} + a_n^{(2)} \log b_n^{(2)} \end{split}$

where $\mu_n^{(1)}, \Lambda_n^{(1)}, a_n^{(1)}, b_n^{(1)}$ and $\mu_n^{(2)}, \Lambda_n^{(2)}, a_n^{(2)}, b_n^{(2)}$ are the posterior hyperparameters for Bayesian linear regression for each of the two models which are functions of the design matrices, the precision matrices and the data vector.

Proof: For Bayesian linear regression with data vector $y$, design matrix $X$, precision matrix $P$ and a normal-gamma prior distribution over $\beta$ and $\tau$, the log model evidence is given by

$\label{eq:GLM-NG-LME} \begin{split} \log p(y|m) = \frac{1}{2} & \log |P| - \frac{n}{2} \log (2 \pi) + \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_0| - \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_n| + \\ & \log \Gamma(a_n) - \log \Gamma(a_0) + a_0 \log b_0 - a_n \log b_n \end{split}$ $\label{eq:GLM-NG-post-par} \begin{split} \mu_n &= \Lambda_n^{-1} (X^\mathrm{T} P y + \Lambda_0 \mu_0) \\ \Lambda_n &= X^\mathrm{T} P X + \Lambda_0 \\ a_n &= a_0 + \frac{n}{2} \\ b_n &= b_0 + \frac{1}{2} (y^\mathrm{T} P y + \mu_0^\mathrm{T} \Lambda_0 \mu_0 - \mu_n^\mathrm{T} \Lambda_n \mu_n) \; . \end{split}$

Thus, the log model evidences for $m_1$ and $m_2$ are given by:

$\label{eq:GLM-NG-LME-12} \begin{split} \mathrm{LME}(m_1) = \frac{1}{2} & \log |P_1| - \frac{n}{2} \log (2 \pi) + \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_0^{(1)}| - \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_n^{(1)}| + \\ & \log \Gamma(a_n^{(1)}) - \log \Gamma(a_0^{(1)}) + a_0^{(1)} \log b_0^{(1)} - a_n^{(1)} \log b_n^{(1)} \\ \mathrm{LME}(m_2) = \frac{1}{2} & \log |P_2| - \frac{n}{2} \log (2 \pi) + \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_0^{(2)}| - \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_n^{(2)}| + \\ & \log \Gamma(a_n^{(2)}) - \log \Gamma(a_0^{(2)}) + a_0^{(2)} \log b_0^{(2)} - a_n^{(2)} \log b_n^{(2)} \; . \end{split}$ $\label{eq:LBF-LME} \mathrm{LBF}_{12} = \mathrm{LME}(m_1) - \mathrm{LME}(m_2) \; .$

Plugging \eqref{eq:GLM-NG-LME-12} into \eqref{eq:LBF-LME}, this gives:

$\label{eq:GLN-NG-LBF-12-s1} \begin{split} \mathrm{LBF}_{12} &= \frac{1}{2} \log |P_1| - \frac{1}{2} \log |P_2| \\ &+ \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_0^{(1)}| - \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_0^{(2)}| \\ &- \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_n^{(1)}| + \frac{1}{2} \log |\Lambda_n^{(2)}| \\ &+ \log \Gamma\left( a_n^{(1)} \right) - \log \Gamma\left( a_0^{(1)} \right) + a_0^{(1)} \log b_0^{(1)} - a_n^{(1)} \log b_n^{(1)} \\ &- \log \Gamma\left( a_n^{(2)} \right) + \log \Gamma\left( a_0^{(2)} \right) - a_0^{(2)} \log b_0^{(2)} + a_n^{(2)} \log b_n^{(2)} \; . \end{split}$

Applying $\log a - \log b = \log(a/b)$, we obtain:

$\label{eq:GLN-NG-LBF-12-s2} \begin{split} \mathrm{LBF}_{12} &= \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|P_1|}{|P_2|} + \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|\Lambda_0^{(1)}|}{|\Lambda_0^{(2)}|} - \frac{1}{2} \log \frac{|\Lambda_n^{(1)}|}{|\Lambda_n^{(2)}|} \\ &+ \log \frac{\Gamma\left( a_n^{(1)} \right)}{\Gamma\left( a_0^{(1)} \right)} + a_0^{(1)} \log b_0^{(1)} - a_n^{(1)} \log b_n^{(1)} \\ &- \log \frac{\Gamma\left( a_n^{(2)} \right)}{\Gamma\left( a_0^{(2)} \right)} - a_0^{(2)} \log b_0^{(2)} + a_n^{(2)} \log b_n^{(2)} \; . \end{split}$
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Metadata: ID: P449 | shortcut: blr-lbf | author: JoramSoch | date: 2024-04-26, 12:12.